Former President Donald Trump would beat President Joe Biden in five of six key battleground states—wins that would likely secure an Electoral College victory—according to a new poll taken a year before the election
If the election were held today, Trump would net more than 300 Electoral College votes, surpassing the 270 needed to win, according to a Times analysis of the results.
But the poll found that another generic Democrat running against Trump would win five of the six battleground states by seven to 12 points, and Nevada by three.
That’s the percentage of voters who said Biden has the proper temperament to be president, compared to 43% for Trump—indicating the former president’s incendiary rhetoric has not dented his electability.
Trump has been leading the GOP primary field by double-digit margins for months and is the party’s presumed nominee. Both he and Biden seem headed for a re-match on wounded footing.
Voters’ concerns about Biden’s age persist and social issues that often drive Democrats’ campaign messaging strategies, such as abortion and guns, are less of a priority for Americans than the economy, according to the poll.
Survey results consistently demonstrate that concerns about the economy, and voters’ faith in Trump to handle them, outweigh negative feelings about Trump’s legal woes, including four criminal cases and a civil fraud trial.